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[ビジネスニュース]ベトナム2023年GDP成長率は5.05%と政府目標に届かずも、第4四半期は6.72%と加速 (JETRO)
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[ビジネスニュース]ベトナム2023年GDP成長率は5.05%と政府目標に届かずも、第4四半期は6.72%と加速 (JETRO)
添付資料
ベトナム統計総局は2023年12月29日、2023年の実質GDP成長率(推計値)を前年比5.05%と発表した。第4四半期(10~12月)は前年同期比6.72%だった。第1四半期(1~3月)から3四半期連続で伸び率は加速したものの、通年では2023年当初の政府のGDP成長率目標(6.5%)に届かなかった。なお、1人当たりGDPは4,284.5ドル(前年より160ドル増)相当と推定される。
通年の産業別の成長率は、農林水産業が3.83%、製造業を含む鉱工業・建設業が3.74%、サービス業が6.82%だった(添付資料表参照)。鉱工業・建設業のうち、GDPの23.9%を占める製造業の成長率は3.62%で、2011年以来最も低い数値となった。GDPの42.5%を占めるサービス業は、ホテル・飲食や文化・レジャーなどを中心に好調を保った。卸売り・小売りも8.82%と高い成長率を示したが、四輪車や二輪車の新車販売は停滞している。不動産も低迷が続いており、高額な支出を控える傾向がみられた。
2023年の四半期別の成長率は、第1四半期(1~3月)3.28%、第2四半期(4~6月)4.05%、第3四半期(7~9月)5.47%、第4四半期(10~12月)6.72%だった。第4四半期の成長率を産業別にみると、農林水産業が4.13%、鉱工業・建設業が7.35%、サービス業が7.29%となった。
グエン・ティ・フオン統計総局長は、2023年通年の成長率について、「政府が定めた目標(6.5%)には届かなかったが、ベトナムは世界で高成長を遂げた経済グループに属しており、前向きな結果だ」と述べた。
2024年については、ベトナム国会はGDP成長率目標を6.0~6.5%と定めている(2023年11月21日記事参照)。しかし、製造業の生産活動は、世界経済の減速、外需の低迷などの外部環境に極めて左右されやすい。また、ベトナム北部地域を中心に夏季の電力逼迫も予測される。このまま2024年のベトナム経済が回復を続けるかは不透明な状況だ。
引用:
JETRO
05 January 2024
Fact-Link Vietnam